Let’s get this out of the way: the Academy Awards aren’t the most important thing in the world. They’re not even the most important thing in the film industry. So no matter what happens on Oscar night, I trust that we’ll all get over it and go back to caring about the films themselves—not the shiny golden statuettes that’ll be given out. With that said, the Academy Awards are still important, for better or worse: in this industry, sadly, Oscars continue to influence producers and will always serve as valuable advertising for the winning films. So I think they’re still worth fussing over.
Below are my choices for which films I think should win and will win for every category, and which films I think were snubbed completely from the race.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should win: Avengers: Endgame
While none of this year’s nominees really stand out to me, I do think that Avengers: Endgame deserves credit for being able to pull off three full hours of visual effects in various forms. Marvel clearly pumped all their money into this thing, with de-aging tech, performance capture, environmental effects, and full CG sequences all coming together more seamlessly than in any previous MCU entry. Endgame is clearly built for spectacle first, but I would happily argue that all the visual effects aid the storytelling, too, in necessary ways. If VFX can give us this many memorable images in one film, than I think those artists deserve some recognition.
Will win: The Lion King
All the other nominated films are solid: The Irishman has de-aging tech of its own, 1917 creates the illusion that the film was shot on these expansive landscapes, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is arguably just as effects-heavy as Endgame. However, the most irrational part of my brain has a hunch that the Academy will go for the immersive effects of The Lion King. I know it’s an unpopular choice, but the Oscars usually love VFX that create entire worlds on green screen. I’m willing to bet they’ll go for Disney’s hyper-realistic animals, stiff as they may be.
Snubbed: Ad Astra
Space movies tend to get a lot of love from the Academy, which makes it surprising that James Gray’s introspective odyssey was left out. It’s got space cars! And photorealistic shots of the moon’s surface! And a dozen other things. But mostly the space cars. It’s all dazzling.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Should win: 1917
Sam Mendes’s “one-shot” war drama deserves this not only for the realistic injuries that these characters sustain throughout the film, but for the sheer effort it must have taken to keep applying all this makeup within continuity. There aren’t many moments throughout 1917 that allow the makeup artists to reset; instead, the makeup has to pile up and fade over time as these two young soldiers travel across the French countryside. It’s pretty invisible work, and for that I think it deserves to be awarded.
Will win: Bombshell
The Academy has finally expanded this category to include five nominees, and the results are odd and kind of boring. Joker‘s clown makeup is definitely memorable, but so is every other iteration of this character. Both Judy and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil transform their lead actresses into vaguely different versions of themselves. But knowing the Academy’s love for films that turn recognizable actors into just-as-recognizable figures throughout history, Bombshell has this in the bag. They’ve managed to turn half their cast into people we only get to see on American news channels. Doesn’t matter if all the makeup doesn’t look particularly good; the facial recognition is enough to bring the Academy’s votes in.
Snubbed: Midsommar
As expected, the Oscars have almost entirely snubbed horror movies once again. Ari Aster’s previous film, Hereditary, featured some truly unnerving prosthetic work. He does it again in Midsommar, whose corpses and misshapen human figures deserve to be remembered as nightmare fuel for years to come.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should (and will) win: Little Women
I rarely pay close attention to costume design in movies, but Little Women had me sit up in my chair. Every outfit for the March family and their friends is beautifully tailored and unique to each character. But more than that, through Greta Gerwig’s clever restructuring of Louisa May Alcott’s novel, she turns the costumes into subtle signposts—signaling time jumps without having to annoy the audience with constant on-screen text. If you can integrate costuming this organically into your storytelling (and still make your actors look absolutely lovely), then you’ve done your job well.
In my opinion, none of the other nominees really stand a chance. The Irishman‘s many mob suits are fitting but ultimately unremarkable. Joker‘s velvet outfit for Arthur Fleck is (again) memorable but not enough to outmatch how Little Women utilizes its costumes to help tell a story. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, admittedly, pays meticulous attention to the different styles of 1960s Los Angeles, but it also isn’t quite as impressive. And while many are placing their bets on Jojo Rabbit, I just don’t want to imagine a scenario where Nazi uniforms will be given a golden statuette.
Snubbed: Rocketman
Much like in Little Women, the costumes in Rocketman help tell a story. Elton John had his flair of the dramatic, but his outfits also started to become a reflection of the character’s fear and insecurity with who he was becoming. It’s criminal that this missed out on a nomination.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should win: Parasite
Very rarely does production design like this come along. Not only are the locations in Parasite absolutely gorgeous to look a, they’ve been built from the ground up specifically for this story. And you never see the seams. As far as first-time viewers are concerned, Bong Joon-ho just happened to find the perfect wealthy house and subterranean neighborhood that would accommodate the film’s drama. This is production design with a real purpose; the geography of everything underlines the film’s most pressing themes, and the more you explore every corner, the more disturbing the revelations become.
Will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Lots of deserving nominees in this category. The Irishman convincingly charts decades in the world of these aging mobsters. Jojo Rabbit finds a way to filter Nazi Germany through a child’s eyes, making training look like summer camp. 1917 constantly provides its actors with new terrain to fumble through. But it’s very likely that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood‘s faithful recreation of L.A. is taking home the Oscar. And as much as I’m personally not a fan of the film, it’s impossible not to be impressed by the rolling hills and gorgeous sets of Old Hollywood.
Snubbed: Vitalina Varela
I’m willing to bet that absolutely nobody in the Academy saw Vitalina Varela, much less liked it. But the film is a wonder of odd, almost two-dimensional set design that looks like something out of The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari. It’s a bizarre and unique choice, especially for a film about the deepest grief.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should win: The Lighthouse
Black-and-white movies have kind of come back into fashion in the last decade, and many of them look just as good as the films of the olden days. But there’s something special about Jarin Blaschke’s work for The Lighthouse. The film looks cursed. It looks as if director Robert Eggers and his team just happened upon this footage somewhere at the bottom of the ocean, and then restored it for audiences. Many black-and-white films attempt to convey age and nostalgia through monochrome, but they only end up looking shiny. The Lighthouse truly looks like a lost relic.
Will win: 1917
Again, lots of strong work in this category. Lawrence Sher brings a much-needed level of grime to Gotham in Joker. Robert Richardson makes Los Angeles pulsate with warmth and summer laziness in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Only The Irishman—with its more-or-less standard Netflix color palette—doesn’t bring out the best in Rodrigo Prieto’s typically stellar cinematography. But there’s no denying that Roger Deakins is going to get his second Oscar for 1917. Just the nighttime village sequence alone—with its strobing shadows and haunting orange glow—is worth all the awards in the world.
Snubbed: Portrait of a Lady on Fire
However, for this writer, it is unquestionable that the best cinematography of 2019 was Claire Mathon’s work on Portrait of a Lady on Fire. Usually when people say “every frame a painting,” it’s a metaphor. Here, the saying becomes as close to factual as possible. Absolutely stunning in every shot.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should (and will) win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
This is an especially weak year for Original Song, and the only nominee in the lineup that’s catchy, meaningful, and memorable even after the credits have rolled is Elton John and Bernie Taupin’s new track for Rocketman. It feels like classic Elton, but what makes the song special is the presence of Taron Egerton’s vocals, a younger Elton dueting with his present self. That the song only arrives during the end credits isn’t a weakness; it caps off the film nicely and acts as a resolution that Elton—and we, the audience—will do what we can to care for ourselves from now on.
The other nominees just don’t really have a spark to them. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 is as cute as Randy Newman’s previous work for the series, but it doesn’t bring any new emotions to the table. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough would have been more remarkable if it wasn’t in service of a weak faith-based story. “Stand Up” from Harriet is worth listening to for Cynthia Erivo’s vocals, but it doesn’t feel like it belongs in the film. And “Into the Unknown,” unfortunately, isn’t even the best song in Frozen II.
Snubbed: “Grand Escape” (Weathering with You), “Show Yourself” (Frozen II), and “Super Cool” (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part)
“Show Yourself” is, in fact, the best song in Frozen II, with its unorthodox arrangements and sweeping scale. “Grand Escape” from Weathering with You is another euphoric Radwimps track (following their already-legendary work on Your Name). And “Super Cool” from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part is easily the best song I heard from a movie throughout the entirety of 2019.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should win: Little Women
Of the nominated scores this year, only one of them swept me completely off my feet and amplified the emotions I had already been feeling from the film. Alexandre Desplat’s score in Little Women perfectly accompanies every emotional beat, bringing out the youthful excitement from every happy memory and finding a deeply human ache at the core of every tragic experience. You’re going to notice throughout this article how much I really love Little Women, and how I feel that every single element of the film works in concert with one another. The score is just one of those many elements.
Will win: Joker
As opposed to his nominated original song, Randy Newman’s score for Marriage Story feels essential to the film, adding to it a softness that the characters desperately need. Thomas Newman’s unexpectedly sorrowful music for 1917 helps keep the focus away from the spectacle and centered on the people. Only John Williams’s work for The Rise of Skywalker feels completely out of place here; it’s neither interesting nor all that original. In the end, I really don’t mind seeing Hildur Guðnadottir be the first solo woman composer to take home this Oscar. Her cello is just as much a part of Joker‘s DNA.
Snubbed: Us
To this day, I can’t shake the music that Michael Abels used during that surreal ballerina dance/fight scene toward the end of Us. All plucked strings and staccato notes—making it both unmistakably horrific and nothing like we’re used to when it comes to horror movie scores.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Should win: Ford v Ferrari
Again, just in case anyone is still confused (it’s okay; the categories do get tricky), sound editing usually refers to sounds added into a film during post. These aren’t sounds that you can easily capture on camera; making them sound like an organic part of the footage is a whole achievement on its own. Given that criteria, I believe that Ford v Ferrari deserves it. Sure, you could just accuse the film of being noisy and full of cars, but but the sound editing makes every one of those noises mean something. It’s a fully immersive sonic experience.
Will win: 1917
This category has a couple of strange nominees that I don’t think belong here: Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Sure, both those films have a little bit of gunfire, but surely there were other (non-Best Picture nominated) films from last year that could’ve taken these slots. Meanwhile, The Rise of Skywalker is a worthy if unimaginative nominee. However, it’s easy to imagine the Academy giving this to 1917. The Oscars tend to like war movies or military movies for the sound categories, and 1917 certainly has to go a long way to sell its soundscapes throughout very long takes.
Snubbed: I Lost My Body
Animated films constantly get snubbed in the Sound Editing category, despite the extreme imagination that goes into sound designing animation. I Lost My Body is probably last year’s best showcase for animated sound. Every time that disembodied hand ran around, the sounds around it magnified to a deadly degree. Really expertly done stuff.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Should win: Ad Astra
Sound mixing, on the other hand, usually refers to the overall sound levels of a film—how the music is balanced with dialogue, sound effects, and other elements. With that in mind, I would make a case for Ad Astra. It’s as sophisticated a space film as the others that have come before it in recent years (Gravity, Interstellar, etc.), and the way the mixing mutes or muffles certain noises while bringing others to an uncomfortable, ASMR-like proximity, is just great. Sure, it’s not the most innovative sound design ever, but it gets the job done.
Will win: 1917
The Academy tends to nominate the same films for both Sound categories over and over again, which makes this race so much more boring than it deserves to be. Again, Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are disappointing picks for these categories (good sound in both, but not exceptional). Ford v Ferrari is excellent (great sound that prevents the film from becoming an unintelligible mess). But since the Academy is boring, they’ll probably give this to 1917 as well, just because it’s also probably winning Sound Editing, too—not that the film doesn’t deserve it, because it does.
Snubbed: The Cave
If animated films go underappreciated for their sound editing, I think a lot of verite documentaries get routinely snubbed for their sound mixing. The sound design in The Cave, in particular, isn’t extremely polished (as expected), but it makes the sound of passing warplanes the most frightening things in the world. That’s enough.
BEST FILM EDITING
Should (and will) win: Parasite
There are a couple of strong nominees in this category, but neither of them gets close to what Yang Jin-mo does for Parasite. There are already Twitter threads and video essays out there dissecting Yang’s use of montages and shifts in perspective, and they only further prove his genius. Yang keeps the film’s pace moving at a constant clip, dancing from one point of view to the next, and steadily conveying information to the audience in such an effortless, economical way. By the time Parasite reaches its white knuckle climax, we’re exhausted in the very best way.
Ford v Ferrari, with Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker’s masterful condensation of the 24-hour Le Mans race into a tight 30 minutes, is completely worthy of being here. Just as worthy is Thelma Schoonmaker’s work for The Irishman, keeping three-and-a-half hours completely watchable, building toward an intense, inevitable final act. Joker and Jojo Rabbit just don’t match up at all; in fact, editing is an issue I have with both of these films. There are certainly better choices out there that use the art of editing for a higher purpose beyond just sequencing shots.
Snubbed: Knives Out and Little Women
Take, for example, how Bob Ducsay manages the twisting, unreliable narrative of Knives Out—while still keeping it ludicrously entertaining. And consider Nick Huoy’s extraordinary work on Little Women, perfectly creating points of connection between past and present in the March sisters’ lives. Both completely snubbed.
SHORT FILM CATEGORIES
As is unfortunately the usual case for me, I don’t really get to see the short film nominees, so my predictions for these three categories are completely uninformed. My total guess for Animated Short Film is Sister. I’m hoping that its unique stop motion look is enough to get Oscar voters interested.
For Live Action Short Film, Nefta Football Club looks like the most pleasant and enjoyable entry—which I hope means more people will vote for it. This is no guarantee, of course, since last year the Academy gave this award to the dark and highly controversial Skin. Maybe voters have lightened up this year.
For Documentary Short Subject, I’m putting my money on the endearingly titled Walk Run Cha-Cha, which has a premise to die for. The Documentary Short category is notorious for being tough to predict, so here’s to hoping the Academy’s voting habits are just as shallow as my predictions.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should win: Toy Story 4
I hate to be on the Disney train again for a category that has rewarded too few films from other studios, but among last year’s animated offerings, nothing could come close to the sophistication and wisdom of Toy Story 4. Sure, it isn’t as good as its predecessors, but it still has no right to be as wonderful as it is. It’s arguably funnier than the previous films, definitely more visually stunning, and still managed to make me cry through its exploration of these toys’ ultimate purpose outside the ownership of a child. This franchise remains unparalleled.
Will win: Klaus
We didn’t get the best work from the other major animation studios in 2019. DreamWorks’ How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World—as sweet as it is—is ultimately too slight to make a lasting impact. Laika’s Missing Link is an uncharacteristically lightweight effort from the stop motion studio. On the independent front, I Lost My Body is an impressive effort, but just doesn’t have the story to support its imagination. Only the Christmas-themed Klaus—a throwback of sorts to holiday classics and Disney Renaissance-style traditional animation—is really memorable, and has a very strong chance of taking the Oscar.
Snubbed: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Aardman Animations sadly missed out on a nomination this year, despite doing what they do best with A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon. The film is hilarious, wholesome, animated as smoothly as any Laika offering, and an absolute gem of childlike wonder that any cynical Oscar voter needs to see.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Should (and will) win: Parasite
There’s absolutely no debate over this. South Korea’s very first Oscar-nominated movie has taken the world by storm, outshining the entries from other countries that regularly show up in this category. A win here marks a big step forward for Asian cinema in Hollywood. And even if it means that America will inevitably adapt more classic South Korean thrillers into laughably poor English language imitations, at least a much wider audience will be exposed to names like Bong Joon-ho, Park Chan-wook, Lee Chang-dong, and many others. This is history in the making, and the Academy would be fools not to follow through on it.
Parasite is a true sensation, but this doesn’t take away from the quality of the other nominees. (I haven’t been able to see France’s Les Miserables, so I can’t comment on it.) Poland’s Corpus Christi tells the compelling story of a fake juvenile priest with humor and suspense. North Macedonia’s Honeyland (I believe the first film to be nominated in both International Feature and Documentary Feature) is incredibly moving in unexpected ways. And Spain’s Pain and Glory is that rare autobiographical piece that doesn’t come off as a vacuous vanity project. All exciting work from all over the world.
Snubbed: Beanpole, Buoyancy, and And Then We Danced
It speaks to the quality of world cinema that this current slate of nominees in this category isn’t even the best of the best. Russia’s Beanpole portrays an unforgettable, tragic friendship between two young female war veterans. Australia’s Buoyancy is a gripping survival thriller about the human trafficking crisis in Cambodia. And Sweden’s And Then We Danced is tender and as full of culture as any of these entries.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should win: Honeyland
I’m a sucker for a documentary that manages to tell a personal, complex, emotional story without the use of talking heads or on-screen text. Honeyland follows a wild beekeeper whose peaceful routine is shattered with the arrival of a nomadic family desperate to make money. As the family adopts Hatidze’s business of beekeeping, conflict begins to emerge between father and son, neighbor and neighbor, boss and employee. It’s a story that would be fit for a fictional narrative treatment. But directors Tamara Kotevska and Ljubomir Stefanov give us all the drama we need through carefully selected shots and stunning footage. It’s spectacular.
Will win: For Sama
As usual, the Documentary Feature category has given us a few of the absolute best films of the year. The Edge of Democracy and The Cave are both flawed, but are striking in their urgency. American Factory is as thorough an examination of intercultural conflict in a highly globalized capitalist society as you could hope for. But my gut is telling me that the Oscar will go to the deeply intimate For Sama, which sees co-director Waad Al-Kateab refusing to stop documenting the situation in Syria, even as she finds herself becoming a mother to a child who doesn’t deserve the world’s violence.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should win: Little Women
To me, this is a no-brainer. Greta Gerwig’s screenplay for Little Women is a work of genius—not only in how it restructures the original novel to bring out new emotional connections (it’s really not that hard to follow, guys), but in how it makes all the hallmarks of a classic coming-of-age narrative exciting again. There is wisdom dripping from every page of this script, be it in Amy’s understanding of a woman’s place in the world, to Jo’s struggle to write a story that’s both profitable and honest. No other screenplay from last year made me yell at the screen in shock and manic kilig.
Will win: Jojo Rabbit
Of the nominated screenplays here, only The Irishman really stands out to me as another strong contender. Steven Zaillian manages to turn the macho fantasy of mob life into something pathetic, petty, and unglamorous. The other nominees are flawed in pretty big ways: Joker‘s script is thematically empty and illogical, The Two Popes favors Pope Francis’s theology a little too much over Pope Benedict’s, and eventual winner Jojo Rabbit simplifies a child’s experience of war into something that doesn’t feel completely honest to me. I’ll be glad to see Taika Waititi bring home some gold, but he’s done much better before.
Snubbed: Toy Story 4
Say what you will about Toy Story 4 being ultimately unnecessary for this franchise, but screenwriters Andrew Stanton and Stephany Folsom still managed to find a way to mine existential crises out of the shenanigans of a bunch of sentient playthings. It’s a more touching story than most live-action films from last year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should (and will) win: Parasite
I’m putting all my money on Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won. No one else came up with better plot twists last year, and no one else came close to the heartbreaking satire and painful social commentary that Parasite provided. The plot is structured so cleanly, the characters are wonderfully complex, and the script’s examination of class differences is elegant and articulate. This is one of the very few social satires from the last decade that really allows the poor to have a dignified, morally complex voice, and without turning them into people to be pitied or exoticized. This is important writing.
There are two other very strong nominees in this category. Rian Johnson’s script for Knives Out takes the classic Agatha Christie-inspired whodunit structure and shreds it into something relevant for today. Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story is overflowing with poignant observations about human relationships and the legal processes that only hinder them from growing. 1917′s story, unfortunately, isn’t the film’s strongest suit. Meanwhile, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood doesn’t give the same kind of anarchic spirit that Quentin Tarantino usually gives us—settling instead for uninteresting tangents and a pointlessly loud resolution. Parasite all the way, or we riot.
Snubbed: Beanpole and Portrait of a Lady on Fire
I would’ve loved to see more non-English language films nominated here. Watching Beanpole feels like reading a dense work of tragic literature. And Portrait of a Lady on Fire makes every line count, becoming not only a masterful romance, but one of the best films about art ever created.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should win: Florence Pugh (Little Women)
This is a no-brainer for me. In a year that saw Florence Pugh killing it in several roles (most notably, as the lead, Dani, in Midsommar), the young actress turned in arguably her best work as Amy March in Little Women. She’s so good that you forgive the fact that she partially plays the character as a teenager, even if she looks twice the age of her actual teenage scene partners. Watching Amy grow from girlish immaturity and excitability to this weathered yet calm composure is one of the film’s greatest joys. If people didn’t like Amy then, they sure will now.
Will win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Among the other nominees, Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell is the only one who’s sort of out of place; she’s good but nothing exceptional. Scarlett Johansson is the most fun she’s ever been in Jojo Rabbit, while Margot Robbie (who’s been having a hell of a weekend with this nomination and Birds of Prey, which you should absolutely see) is highly affecting as a composite character in Bombshell. However, there’s no way that this isn’t going to Laura Dern’s fierce work in Marriage Story. All these acting categories are locked, but they’re all going to pretty deserving people.
Snubbed: Adele Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
My favorite female supporting performance from 2019 was from Portrait of a Lady on Fire‘s mysterious Adele Haenel, who steadily takes Heloise from unpredictable, dangerous territory to pure romantic euphoria. That final shot, with nothing but Heloise and music playing in the background? That’s called perfection.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should win: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
I’m of the unpopular opinion that Tom Hanks was the standout in this slate of nominees. His performance in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood isn’t simply about imitating Fred Rogers’ expressions, movements, and manner of speaking. Hanks really inhabits the man’s kind spirit, bringing weight to every solemn silence in between Mr. Rogers’ words. And if you’ve seen the movie, you’ll remember these little tricks that both Hanks and director Marielle Heller pull off that allow the character to communicate directly to the audience. And suddenly you feel like a child again, listening to a real-life angel tell you that we’re all special no matter what.
Will win: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
This is a strong list of nominees. It says a lot when Anthony Hopkins—impeccably cast as Pope Benedict XVI in The Two Popes—is the least impressive of the lot. Both Joe Pesci and Al Pacino absolutely do not phone it in in The Irishman. But it’s hard to be mad at the idea of Brad Pitt finally winning his acting Oscar when his work in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is clearly the best part of that movie. In many ways it’s the quintessential Brad Pitt role. Cliff Booth has the swagger of Tyler Durden but also the quiet nature of Pitt’s many meditative roles over the years.
Snubbed: Song Kang-ho (Parasite)
However, it is absolutely criminal that Song Kang-ho is not on this list. His performance in Parasite was my favorite performance of 2019. It’s brutal what Kim Ki-taek has to go through and Song makes us understand—without justifying—the difficult decisions the character has to make. It’s truly masterful work from a living legend.
BEST ACTRESS
Should win: Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Every other year Saorise Ronan was nominated, I went with another actress whom I think outdid her just a little bit. This year, I think Ronan stands head and shoulders above the rest. Her portrayal of Jo makes this young aspiring writer into a woman driven equally by passion, independence, and profound loneliness. There is, of course, a warmth to her interactions with her sisters, but there’s also bitterness there that’ll look familiar to anyone who grew up arguing with their siblings. Of all the nominated performances here, this one looks 1000% genuine. If anyone’s gonna upset the expected winners on Oscar night, I hope it’s her.
Will win: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
This year’s nominees for Best Actress are unfortunately not all that exciting. Cynthia Erivo is given very little to work with in Harriet‘s weirdly fantastical take on the American hero. Charlize Theron’s turn as Megyn Kelly is fine, but feels more like a supporting performance in Bombshell. Scarlett Johansson is incredibly impressive in Marriage Story but still nowhere near as affecting as Ronan. And eventual winner Renee Zellweger is electric as a withering actress in Judy, and would be totally deserving of this Oscar in any other year—but she’s still just not the best of the bunch this time.
Snubbed: Viktoria Miroshnichenko and Vasilisa Perelygina (Beanpole)
I’m going to go left field on this one: the best lead performances I saw from 2019 were from Viktoria Miroshnichenko and Vasilisa Perelygina in Beanpole. They manage to turn this friendship between two young women into a horrible cat and mouse game full of lies and emotional blackmail. It’s insane and beautiful.
BEST ACTOR
Should win: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Contrary to what the memes would have you believe, Adam Driver is so good in Marriage Story because he almost never raises his voice. His performance as Charlie is so affecting because you can see how the character is just barely holding it together through all his frustratingly candid interactions with his ex-wife, and through all the rigorous legal proceedings that magnify the flaws in his marriage to an unsettling degree. But Driver still gives Charlie agency, and his emotional breakthrough(s) toward the end of the film are so understated that you might just miss them. But pay enough attention, and he’ll bring you to tears.
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
This is a solid list of Best Actors. Antonio Banderas plays a slightly fictionalized version of his director, Pedro Almodovar, in Pain and Glory—but the performance isn’t vain or self-serving in the slightest. Leonardo DiCaprio is hilariously neurotic and unhinged in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Jonathan Pryce gives Cardinal Bergoglio / Pope Francis all the kindness and fear in the world. However, there is simply no stopping the Joaquin Phoenix train. Though Joker may be heavily flawed, Phoenix carries the movie on his back and gives it legitimacy through his twisted movements and anguished laughter.
Snubbed: Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
You would think that an institution like the Academy would shower more affection on one of America’s greatest living actors, so it’s a complete puzzle to me why Robert De Niro’s work in The Irishman has gone ignored. He mumble-cries better than anyone else in the industry today.
BEST DIRECTOR
Should win: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
It’s tempting to think of the “best” direction as whatever looks most complicated to do, or has the most moving parts. This isn’t necessarily true. Good direction can come in any forms: it can be found in tone, in performances, in camera movements, in how imaginatively a script is translated to action on-screen. Bong Joon-ho literally does all of these things perfectly in Parasite. That he so skillfully blends comedy with darkness and gut-wrenching tragedy is only the tip of the iceberg. His mastery over the language of filmmaking in this film ought to be studied for generations to come.
Will win: Sam Mendes (1917)
Among the nominated directors, I don’t understand what Todd Phillips and Quentin Tarantino are doing here. There’s little to no self-awareness in Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and the films come off as inconsequential due to their directorial choices. On the other hand, Martin Scorsese is operating at top form in The Irishman (and he doesn’t rely on violence at all!). And Sam Mendes, the inevitable winner, for 1917, really does put on an impressive show. His direction in the film is more than just the “one-shot” gimmick; he gives this war an unexpectedly peaceful, eerie quality.
Snubbed: Greta Gerwig (Little Women) and Rian Johnson (Knives Out)
Yes, Greta Gerwig was snubbed for Little Women, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. She turns a 19th-century novel into something with as much joy and love of life as any modern coming-of-age film. And Rian Johnson gives the best comedic direction of the year for Knives Out.
BEST PICTURE
Should (and will) win: Parasite
There is simply no other choice for Best Picture this year that would be as important and as monumental as choosing Parasite. Not only would a win for Bong Joon-ho here (hopefully) signal to the rest of the world that Hollywood is finally opening up more to the international community, but it could help normalize international, subtitled cinema in the United States. Parasite is both distinctly non-Hollywood in tone and execution, but it’s also so accessible and entertaining that literally anybody anywhere should be able to enjoy it. It ticks all the boxes. There is no better choice than this.
This year’s Best Picture roster is all right—definitely better than last year’s but still nowhere near the 2018 Best Picture list (Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, etc.). Little Women, Marriage Story, and The Irishman are all spectacular films that deserve to be here. 1917 is an undeniable technical achievement that I don’t mind being on the list. Ford v Ferrari and Jojo Rabbit are both fun in their own ways but nowhere near the best of 2019. And Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood have absolutely no business being in this conversation, in my opinion.
Snubbed: Avengers: Endgame, Knives Out, The Lighthouse, and Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Want an irreverent satire with a relevant message? Swap out Jojo Rabbit for Knives Out. Want a thrilling new vision from an American auteur? Ditch Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for The Lighthouse. You really have to nominate a comic book movie? I’d much sooner have the unabashed spectacle of Avengers: Endgame than the mixed messaging of Joker. Tired of straight white male movies, as good as they can be (like Ford v Ferrari)? Consider the sheer beauty of Portrait of a Lady on Fire. Winners all, in my heart.
Emil Reviews Things 