With the 95th Academy Awards around the corner, here are some last-minute predictions and personal votes for the ceremony. These Oscars are shaping up to be some of the more exciting races in the last few years, with many deserving winners in multiple categories, and the chance for the Academy to make history if they play their cards right.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should and will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
As they say, never bet against James Cameron. While you could argue that the new Avatar is no longer groundbreaking, it’s still a miracle of technical innovation that reminds you what these Hollywood blockbusters are actually supposed to look like. The spectacle of The Way of Water‘s visuals are undeniable, and they are the clear winner in this year’s field. And while a few other nominees are impressive and immersive in their own ways, The Way of Water‘s commitment to world-building easily puts it over the top.
Snubbed: Everything Everywhere All at Once
It would have been great to get some independent filmmaking representation here, and nominating the mostly five-person team behind the VFX of Everything Everywhere All at Once would have been yet another inspiration for budding filmmakers everywhere.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front
It may not sport lifelike character prosthetics or colorful transformations, but the mud, ash, and blood that covers every surface of All Quiet on the Western Front serves a significant story purpose. In fact, the makeup work arguably does a better job than the film’s own screenplay at emphasizing that war isn’t something to cheer about; it’s filthy, miserable, and disgusting.
Will win: Elvis
The Academy loves it when actors are turned into famous figures, and the gradually evolving looks on Austin Butler (and Tom Hanks, I guess) in Elvis are right up Oscar’s alley.
Snubbed: X
Aside from having glorious gore (that the Oscars constantly ignore in this category), Ti West’s X also features an unrecognizable Mia Goth as the film’s villain—one of the most convincing makeup effects of 2022.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
An inspired nomination in this category, Everything Everywhere‘s DIY costumes have already achieved something of an iconic status. From the clothing that Evelyn and Waymond wear all throughout the film to Jobu Tupaki’s kaleidoscope of outfits, every look fits within the movie’s hyperactive humor and modest but powerful heart.
Will win: Elvis
Just like in the Makeup category, Elvis Presley’s classic outfits throughout his career will make this an easy win for voters who are even just vaguely familiar with the icon’s style.
Snubbed: Pearl
Ti West’s other 2022 horror film provides immediately striking looks for its titular slasher anti-heroine—already as memorable as Freddy Krueger’s striped jacket or Jason Voorhees’ hockey mask.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should and will win: Babylon
Hollywood loves looking at itself in the mirror, and based on all the production design awards the film has already won, the Academy is definitely going to take the opportunity to celebrate itself again. But I think Babylon is a great choice for the Oscar because I don’t think it celebrates Hollywood. Its cocaine-fueled funhouse mirror version of 1920s Los Angeles is the film industry in bold, red italics, with something new and shocking at every turn.
Snubbed: Klondike
An outside pick that the Academy probably hasn’t even seen, this Ukrainian drama takes place almost entirely in a home progressively falling apart from the effects of war. Just amazing storytelling told through the set.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should win: Tár
In a bizarre field of nominees, none of whom I feel too strongly about, Tár is my winner by default. The way it leaps from the clinical interiors of classical music halls to disconcerting psychological visions has remained fascinating to unpack. It’s striking ultimately for what the film doesn’t show us, and for the darker things it merely suggests.
Will win: Elvis
In an even more bizarre twist, Mandy Walker’s work for Elvis won the American Society of Cinematographers’ prize this year, which I think boosts its chances here. It’s a choice I can’t say I agree with, but one that I’m still okay with if it means a woman finally winning here.
Snubbed: Aftersun
If you want to talk about film as a visual medium and the power of the image, it rarely gets better than Aftersun. Every image is sad and reassuring and mysterious, and sticks with you long after the credits roll.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should and will win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
The Best Original Song category tends to be frustrating, especially when the Academy insists on nominating credits songs just because they’re performed by famous artists. But this year, I just don’t think there’s any resisting the Telugu dance-folk banger that is “Naatu Naatu.” Not only is it just sonically more interesting than the other nominees, it actually has a function in the movie: as a celebration of the friendship between RRR‘s heroes, and an omen of their inevitable conflict.
Snubbed: “Still Holding My Hand” – Matilda the Musical
Tim Minchin’s newly written track for his musical’s film adaptation may not sound like the other songs in the score, but it’s tremendously affecting and facilitates a stronger happy ending for all the characters involved.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should win: Babylon
One of the most thrilling musical scores in a long, long time, Justin Hurwitz’s vision of ’20s music filtered through contemporary sensibilities and the rhythms of other genres is also responsible for driving so much of Babylon forward. It’s loud and brash and fully embodies the tone and spirit of the entire film—a stone-cold classic that’s already unforgettable.
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
But Babylon‘s inability to sweep the season is a reminder of how divisive the film really is. But to be fair, its closest competitor in this category, All Quiet on the Western Front, also uses music creatively, interrupting whatever’s on screen with a reminder of the cold, unfeeling machine of war.
Snubbed: Turning Red
So many incredible scores in 2022, but few have stuck with me more than Turning Red‘s joyous mix of ’90s pop, new jack swing, and notes of traditional Chinese music.
BEST SOUND
Should and will win: Top Gun: Maverick
A number of the Sound nominees this year all seem to be films the Academy would easily go for, but I think the unique perspective of the action in Top Gun: Maverick really puts it in pole position. And I would agree; this is action that relies entirely on selling a sense of direction and speed in the sound mix, which makes it such a thrilling experience whether in a cinema or at home.
Snubbed: Nope
Absolutely disrespectful that Jordan Peele’s sci-fi/horror film wasn’t nominated here. Sound designed within an inch of its life, Nope‘s spectacle is unlike anything else, and carves exciting new ways for blockbuster horror moving forward.
BEST FILM EDITING
Should and will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is one case where the “most editing” is also the best editing. Everything Everywhere‘s wild multiverse jumping is impressively coherent, with the film’s emotional center not only remaining strong through every cut, but making the comedic dramatic and the dramatic comedic in the process. It’s also all just great fun, with sight gags aplenty and endless rewatch value. The film definitely has a scrappy spirit to it, but its editing is deceptively sophisticated, elegant stuff.
Snubbed: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Documentaries are constantly shut out of technical categories, which is a shame because Laura Poitras’ documentary largely patterns itself after Nan Goldin’s own distinctive slide shows, expanding through deliberate editing the scope of Goldin’s activism and extending the lives of those she’s lost.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Should win: Ice Merchants
In a very, very strong field of nominees, my personal favorite is this wordless short on a father and son attempting to return to their normal routine despite their grief. It’s got stunning traditional animation, highly stylized direction that sells the altitude of these characters’ world, and a gut punch of an ending. It’s better than most of the animated feature nominees.
Will win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Having already won the BAFTA, this 30-minute adaptation of a children’s self-help-style book is going to win across the pond, too. It may get ridiculed by adults who find it too cloying, but I still value its unabashed tenderness and its breathtaking art style that just might make kids believe in magic.
Snubbed: Black Slide
A little similar to Ice Merchants, the Israeli short Black Slide also contends with the inevitability of loss in its own striking way, through plenty of tension and a great visual style somewhere between CG and stop motion.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Should win: Le pupille
Bracingly original and unfairly dismissed by some other prognosticators as “too weird,” Alice Rohrwacher’s Christmas tale is brimming with imagination and incisive observations of the ways a child’s morality is shaped within the rigidity of Catholic school. It’s also just absurdly good-looking—a real filmmaker’s film.
Will win: An Irish Goodbye
Also already a BAFTA winner, An Irish Goodbye is simple, fun, and inoffensive enough to get on the Academy’s good side—and it might just be able to ride on the wave of Irish love at this year’s ceremony.
Snubbed: The Lone Wolf
I don’t think it’s better than a couple of these nominees, but The Lone Wolf‘s formal ambition is admirable—a one-shot thriller in a radio booth, with a compelling lead performance.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Should win: Haulout
Easily the best in its category, Haulout is a legitimately grand cinematic experience—a firsthand look at the effects of climate change on walrus migration, told through unbelievable sound design and jaw-dropping images. It’s a terrific reminder that documentaries (even shorts) don’t have to proceed in the usual talking-head-dependent style.
Will win: Stranger at the Gate
The only documentary short that seems to have had any sort of presence on the awards circuit, the clunky, questionable Stranger at the Gate is executive produced by Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai and seems like exactly the kind of thing the Academy’s primarily liberal voter base would go for.
Snubbed: As Far as They Can Run
The beautiful As Far as They Can Run easily overcomes its seemingly manipulative setup by being frank about the difficulty of caring for differently abled children, in a capitalist world that forces people to choose between family and work. Powerful and very sweet.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Already so unique in its category and even more unique as an animated film in general—commenting on how we tend to respond to “cute” things in such a shallow, self-centered manner—Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is a plea for authentic community. In another universe it would be such a meaningful winner in this typically predictable category.
Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
I’m not as taken by del Toro’s more mature, anti-fascist reimagining of the Pinocchio story, but he’s been animation’s most prominent and most vocal champion the entire season, and a win for him does, in a way, feel like a win for other animators, too.
Snubbed: Mad God
In a landmark year for stop motion animation, Phil Tippett should have emerged as its biggest hero. Mad God, his nightmarish, experimental descent into hell—thirty years in the making—deserved its flowers, too.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Should win: The Quiet Girl
In this uncommonly consistent list of great nominees, my personal favorite is the simplest. Ireland’s submission is a story of a little girl who goes to live with her relatives for a spell, then goes home—but by the end it feels as if so much has shifted emotionally. Some of 2022’s best cinematography reflects the unspoken emotions just threatening to burst from these actors’ perfectly measured performances.
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Nominated for a boatload of Oscars, having already won the BAFTA, and following in the footsteps of 1930’s Best Picture winner, All Quiet on the Western Front is a(n equally worthy) shoo-in.
Snubbed: Return to Seoul
One film among those submitted to the Oscars by their respective countries stands out to me: Cambodian director Davy Chou’s captivating character study of a Korean-born French adoptee who simply refuses to change. It’s a brilliantly performed, decade-spanning drama that’s unpredictable from start to finish.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
It’s no longer considered a frontrunner, but Laura Poitras’ tribute to Nan Goldin’s career and works of art will remain one of my favorite films of the past year. It’s a powerful tribute to a truly great living artist and activist, and a masterclass in how to weave the personal, the political, the historical, and the artistic into an urgent, moving, satisfying whole.
Will win: Navalny
But this is one year when the timeliest of the nominees is set to take the gold, especially after winning the Producers Guild Award. It’s not quite Nan Goldin, but it’s a strong film directed almost like a fictional thriller.
Snubbed: Three Minutes: A Lengthening
One of my favorite overlooked documentaries of the year, Three Minutes: A Lengthening is an hour-long study of three minutes of amateur footage of a Polish village right before the Holocaust. As the mystery of where this place was and who these people were gets answered, the film asks even greater questions about the true value of recovering history.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should and will win: Women Talking
Though it faces tough competition from BAFTA winner All Quiet on the Western Front, Sarah Polley’s philosophical drama about the women of a religious colony debating their fate has retained its presence throughout award season, and it just feels like the right kind of winner for the Academy. And it would be deserved: it’s the most interesting screenplay nominated this year—truly testing out what a dialogue-heavy film can look and sound like.
Snubbed: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
I had forgotten at first that this does fall under the Adapted Screenplay category, and Marcel the Shell‘s gentle wisdom and uniquely framed story (of animated film within a mockumentary) would’ve made it a fantastic addition here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should win: Tár
Even if I don’t think Tár is as magnificent as most people seem to think (i.e. I know what the Philippines is supposed to look like), there’s no denying the intoxicating power of suggestion built into Todd Field’s screenplay. It’s a whirlwind of dense character work and grand creative discussions pointing toward its title character’s ego and fear of being found out.
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
But unlike many Tár fans, I also wouldn’t mind the Daniels repeating their Writers Guild win here. Too often is Everything Everywhere flattened into “a film about kindness,” when it also so poignantly captures the comforting allure of surrendering to meaninglessness as the world goes to shit around us.
Snubbed: Return to Seoul
Once again, one of the best screenplays that the Academy has likely never encountered is Return to Seoul‘s beautifully layered odyssey of the soul—resulting in one of the most complex protagonists in a film in a long time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Among the usual names that have been thrown around since the beginning of award season, it’s always been Kerry Condon for me. Her exasperated, deeply sorrowful, but still effortlessly pointed work as a long-suffering sister is so good that it almost makes the other performers less convincing. And yet there’s still so much generosity to Condon’s acting, enhancing every scene she’s in.
Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is a big swing, but after Jamie Lee Curtis’ victory at the Screen Actors Guild—and the enthusiasm that everyone clearly had in the room for her—I think her going all the way is absolutely within the realm of possibility.
Snubbed: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness
But unquestionably the year’s best performance by a supporting actress—and I’m not even saying this just as a Filipino—is Dolly de Leon, whose weary, ruthless performance elevates the mediocre Triangle of Sadness into something so much richer and more complex in its third act.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should and will win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
I’m not even trying to ride the tidal wave of acclaim that Ke Huy Quan has received for his many roles in Everything Everywhere; I really do think he does something special with Waymond Wang. Every time I go back to his performance, I find something new. Yes, there’s tenderness and martial arts expertise, but there’s also sadness and self-loathing, as well as the precise skill of moving from one state to another without getting lost along the way. His work and his career narrative are impossible to beat.
Snubbed: Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
I would’ve given anything to replace Judd Hirsch (good, but essentially a cameo) with Paul Dano’s sensitive, silently tormented turn in The Fabelmans. Dano proves he doesn’t need to go full Riddler to leave a lasting mark.
BEST ACTRESS
Should and will win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Far too many people like to argue that the (also incredible) Cate Blanchett is the one nominee here who actually put in a performance deserving of being called the best. I simply disagree, and I think it would be disingenuous to see Michelle Yeoh’s prospective victory as just a career award. It’s hard to be funny, it’s hard to be physically convincing, it’s hard to clear away a film’s unhinged, overwhelming elements to find something simple and so profoundly touching. It’s her time.
Snubbed: Park Ji-min – Return to Seoul
But my favorite performance of 2022 belonged to the chameleonic Park Ji-min, who—in her first acting role ever—masks a woefully unresolved trauma of abandonment with layers upon layers of denial and delusion.
BEST ACTOR
Should win: Paul Mescal – Aftersun
This is the best set of nominees for Best Actor we’ve gotten in about 15 years. And the strongest of them is the youngest of the lot—as a young father ashamed of his inability to provide, Paul Mescal manages to fill every pause and every look with a world of regret. It’s deceptively physical too, in the way he stretches his frame and shudders in tears through the night. It’s positively haunting.
Will win: Austin Butler – Elvis
Austin Butler’s entirely believable turn as Elvis Presley isn’t just more of the Academy’s speed, it’s also the only genuinely great thing in the film. Butler single-handedly takes Elvis to more sincere and more coherent emotional territory.
Snubbed: Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans
If only award-giving bodies stopped shunting young actors to “breakthrough” categories, Gabriel LaBelle would have been a frontrunner—charismatic and soulful well beyond his years, and the kind of coming-of-age hero we rarely get anymore.
BEST DIRECTOR
Should and will win: Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once
I don’t think this field of nominees is particularly exciting. But I have no issues giving this to the Daniels, who display both a technical and emotional mastery over their craft, and—most importantly—are clearly having fun just doing whatever the hell they want, even if the snobs find them corny or weird. I think their victories throughout award season really are inspiring for the little indie guys, and they’re great examples of directors who lead with love and joy and a lack of ego on set.
Snubbed: Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
Speaking of filmmakers whom award-giving bodies lazily wave off to “breakthrough” categories, Charlotte Wells did more in her debut feature than many of these other contenders have done in their best work. Every scene in Aftersun feels precise and fragile but with the improvised quality of a home video tape—building up to one of the best and most artful endings of the past decade.
BEST PICTURE
Should and will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
I don’t think Everything Everywhere is the best movie of the year, and I certainly don’t think it’s anywhere near being the best movie ever made. But for what it tries to be—which is an awful lot—I think it succeeds far more than the other nominees do, with a sincerity and sense of wonder that not even this overextended season has been able to dull. It’s just what I needed to see when it was released, and I’m pleasantly surprised that the Academy and the guilds have taken to something that feels so personal.
Snubbed: Aftersun
But once again, if you want to talk about spectacular pieces of filmmaking about the difficulty of connecting with a parent and finally forging some sort of connection through space and time, Aftersun is still the best movie of 2022. By never fully revealing its hand, it doesn’t seem like much in the moment, but just giving it even a little bit of thought afterward is a staggering experience. You’ll never be able to listen to “Under Pressure” the same way.
Emil Reviews Things 